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CANADIAN REAL ESTATE MARKET RELATIVELY RESILIENT DURING FIRST QUARTER

Only modest house price declines despite predictions of double digit depreciation

TORONTO, April 8, 2009 – Consistent with current economic trends, Canadian residential real estate prices declined during the first quarter, according to a quarterly House Price Survey released today by Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd.  As the market correction unfolds, year-over-year home prices were lower, as was expected. Increased buyer activity at the end of March suggests that spring will bring its typical increase in unit sales activity as buyers target summer moves.

Regional disparities in quarterly housing prices showed markets in Atlantic Canada outperforming other areas of the country as hardy local economies spurred house price growth across the three housing types surveyed.  Markets in central Quebec and eastern Ontario held steady with areas of modest growth and limited declines. In the balance of Ontario, and in particular the Greater Toronto Area, prices retreated from the record levels set in the first quarter of 2008, with most trading areas showing mid to low single digit declines.  With the exception of Manitoba, western provinces saw significant changes as the rapid run-up in prices experienced earlier in the decade gave way to double-digit declines in most regions.  As market corrections in B.C. and Alberta were underway well ahead of the full impact of the current economic crisis, it is suggested that these areas may be first in Canada to stabilize.

 “We expected a sharper decline in house prices across Canadian markets during the first quarter,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd.  With economic hardship dominating our global consciousness, it was predictable that dwindling consumer confidence would continue to drive prices lower.  But markets were relatively resilient during the period. Soper continued, “Canadians in most regions should not expect the prices of their homes to begin appreciating again until the overall economy begins to stabilize, likely in the first half of 2010.” 

The report shows that the average price of a two storey home in Canada declined 6.5 per cent to $379,636 compared to the same quarter last year.  In Vancouver, the average price declined 12.6 per cent year-over-year to $828,750 while in St. John’s prices climbed 15.6 per cent to $265,000.  With consumer confidence bolstered following investments by Vale Inco NL and Hebron, Soper commented: “Using house price change as a gauge, Newfoundland is Canada’s sole remaining seller’s market."

Moderate growth occurred for detached bungalows in Montreal (up 2 per cent) and Ottawa (up 1.9 per cent), while Toronto saw a decline of 6.3 per cent compared to the same period in 2008.  Prices in the prairies and in western cities declined with the average price for a detached bungalow down 8.1 per cent in Saskatoon and 11.2 per cent in Edmonton.

The nation’s condominium market waned with the average price of a standard unit dropping 3.4 per cent to $232,877 compared to $241,152 in the first quarter of 2008.  Calgary saw a 12.8 per cent drop in average price of condominiums, but declines were less severe in Vancouver (down 5.3 per cent) and in Toronto (down 3.1 per cent).  “Condominiums are generally the most affordable housing option, especially in urban centres,” Soper said.  “With record low lending rates and new government initiatives aimed at encouraging first-time buyers to enter the market, ownership at the entry level is becoming increasingly accessible.”

Noting recent global efforts to address the economic crisis, including the coordinated response from the world’s leading economies coming out of the G20 meeting and stimulus package announcements at home and in the United States, as well as what appears to be the beginning of equity market recovery, Soper commented, “These glimmers of economic hope are coinciding with a time of year that typically brings renewed interest in the housing market.  Traditional spring trends – increases in open house attendance, calls to brokers and viewing appointments – tell us that potential buyers are stepping off the sidelines and an increase in purchase activity is likely to follow.” 

Royal LePage’s quarterly House Price Survey shows the following annual change of prices for key housing segments in select national markets:

 

 

Detached Bungalows

Market

Q1 2009 Average

Last Quarter Average

Q1 2008 Average

Bungalow % Change

Halifax 

215,667

195,000

185,000

16.6%

Charlottetown 

157,000

157,000

155,000

1.3%

Moncton 

156,000

150,000

152,000

2.6%

Fredericton 

167,000

162,000

160,000

4.4%

Saint John 

201,476

225,064

199,786

0.8%

St. John's 

193,000

190,050

164,000

17.7%

Montreal 

232,375

235,293

227,799

2.0%

Ottawa 

317,500

321,333

311,583

1.9%

Toronto 

405,286

376,286

432,679

-6.3%

Winnipeg 

231,663

221,150

229,125

1.1%

Regina 

266,625

274,167

237,138

12.4%

Saskatoon 

312,500

300,000

340,000

-8.1%

Calgary 

391,833

410,333

442,852

-11.5%

Edmonton 

298,750

300,000

336,250

-11.2%

Vancouver 

743,750

743,750

852,750

-12.8%

Victoria 

453,000

440,000

439,000

3.2%

National

319,865

316,717

337,023

-6.1



 

 

Standard Two Storey

Market

Q1 2009 Average

Last Quarter Average

Q1 2008 Average

2 Storey % Change

Halifax 

242,000

240,000

229,000

5.7%

Charlottetown 

188,000

188,000

185,000

1.6%

Moncton 

134,500

126,000

135,300

-0.6%

Fredericton 

210,000

210,000

197,000

6.6%

Saint John 

268,000

294,695

264,000

1.5%

St. John's 

265,000

261,800

229,333

15.6%

Montreal 

330,056

334,850

332,389

-0.7%

Ottawa 

318,500

320,083

309,833

2.8%

Toronto 

516,052

522,050

545,750

-5.4%

Winnipeg 

251,721

251,171

242,943

3.6%

Regina 

245,000

245,000

227,500

7.7%

Saskatoon 

348,500

348,500

395,000

-11.8%

Calgary 

390,689

417,511

445,792

-12.4%

Edmonton 

326,713

354,363

372,738

-12.3%

Vancouver 

828,750

837,500

948,750

-12.6%

Victoria 

435,000

433,000

460,000

-5.4%

National

379,636

385,777

401,040

-6.5%



 

 

Standard Condominium

Market

Q1 2009 Average

Last Quarter Average

Q1 2008 Average

Condo % Change

Halifax 

144,000

144,000

130,000

10.8%

Charlottetown 

120,000

120,000

120,000

0.0%

Moncton 

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A*

Fredericton 

137,000

133,000

126,000

8.7%

Saint John 

181,387

158,283

153,000

18.6%

St. John's 

205,667

203,000

173,333

18.7%

Montreal 

206,528

203,808

206,556

0.0%

Ottawa 

207,833

207,833

198,083

4.9%

Toronto 

289,397

296,895

298,662

-3.1%

Winnipeg 

145,943

132,643

138,000

5.8%

Regina 

168,806

172,917

160,917

4.9%

Saskatoon 

187,000

186,500

220,000

-15.0%

Calgary 

245,756

257,189

281,807

-12.8%

Edmonton 

210,000

219,031

243,750

-13.8%

Vancouver 

431,500

405,000

455,750

-5.3%

Victoria 

260,000

265,000

294,000

-11.6%

National

232,877

233,462

241,152

-4.0%

 

About The House Price Survey
The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast.  This release references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current figures will be updated following the end of the first quarter.  A printable version of the first quarter 2009 survey will be available online on May 16, 2009.
  
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions on fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts.  Historical data is available for some areas back to the early 1970s.

 

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Toronto Real Estate Board - IDX Last Updated: 8/20/2017 6:32:21 AM